Chemical fiber industry chain in January review and February trend forecast
Part I Brief description
January polyester industry chain upstream and downstream products as a whole was first up and then down pattern. In the first half of the international crude oil continued to move higher, the collective strength of commodities, polyester raw materials PTA and glycol market shocks higher, the raw material side of the push, polyester products market then pulled up. Beginning in the second half of the market to promote factors weaken, polyester raw material market back to market fundamentals, PTA under the pressure of accumulated storage, the market gradually weakened, the cost side support weakened, while the terminal weaving enterprises began to shut down one after another for the holidays, the demand side weakened, polyester enterprises increased promotion, polyester products market narrowly weakened.
Table 1 Chemical fiber industry chain of products in January up and down list.
Data source: Goldlink
As shown in Table 1, on the chain range, in January PX (CFR Taiwan) ring up 13.70%, PTA ring up 7.07%, MEG ring up 13.33%, polyester slices ring up 8.62%, polyester bottles ring up 6.39%, polyester filament ring up 9.41%, polyester staple fiber ring up 9.18%.
Part II January chemical fiber industry chain up and down and trend analysis
Data source: Jinlian Chuang
The monthly average price of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials monitored by Goldlink Chemical Fiber Industry Chain, as shown in the chart above, the monthly average price of chemical fiber products rose in January, the increase was concentrated in 6-14%, the largest increase was PX, up 13.70%, followed by MEG, up 13.33%, the smallest increase was polyester bottle flakes, up only 6.39%.
Data source: Goldlink
January from the chemical fiber industry chain of products up and down statistics, as shown above, the month of chemical fiber industry chain market shock upward, but the overall level is still far below the same period last year prices, as can be seen from the year-on-year data, the overall decline between 11-22%, the largest decline for PTA, down 22.26%, and the smallest decline is polyester staple fiber, down 10.82%.
The third part of the chemical fiber chain main product market analysis
In January, the PX market in Asia was shaking higher, and by the end of the month, the PX market in Asia was estimated at US$666/mt FOB Korea and US$684/mt CFR Taiwan/China, which was US$65/mt higher than the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil continued to move higher, the overall industry chain is more positive, the general environment is warm, in addition to Pengzhou Petrochemical 750,000 tons / year PX plant temporary stop due to failure, the domestic supply continues to tighten, the holder of strong price intention, and the downstream PTA market also continued to pick up, linkage raw materials PX continued to strengthen. The first half of the international crude oil continued to hit a recent high, the PX upstream and downstream markets generally followed, although Pengzhou Petrochemical 750,000 tons / year PX plant to resume production, but the overall domestic supply is still not high, the strong intention of the business price, PX maintain a firm posture. The market slowed down in the middle of the day, the domestic two sets of PX plant is still under maintenance, the supply is relatively small, but under the influence of some long-term uncertainties, market participants are still wary of this upward trend, the market shock finishing. At the end of the month, the new PTA unit of Baihong Petrochemicals went into operation, the PTA industry started higher, PX demand is good, the business quotes firm, but due to the restart of the Fukai Chuang PX unit maintenance is completed, PX supply also increased, depressing market sentiment, the long and short atmosphere stalemate. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced the January PX settlement price at 5190 yuan / ton, 530 yuan / ton higher than last month's settlement. January CFR Taiwan / China average price at 679.95 U.S. dollars / ton, 13.70% higher than last year, 16.41% lower than last year, the lowest price appeared in January 1 at 636 U.S. dollars / ton, the highest price appeared in January 14 at 697 U.S. dollars / ton.
In January, the PTA spot market rose and then fell, and the overall transaction was still acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market is sharply higher, the cost side of the strong pull up PTA market, macro market atmosphere is good, boosting PTA market mentality. Part of the PTA device parking, spot circulation is still tight situation. Downstream work load to maintain high, the demand side of PTA support, the short-term market supply and demand contradictions have been eased, PTA prices rose significantly. 7 East China main port spot offer execution 2105 contract minus 175-180 yuan / ton, delivery minus 185 yuan / ton, negotiations around 3850-3880 yuan / ton. In the middle of the day, the international crude oil market high oscillation, the cost side of the PTA market to promote a strong role. Part of the PTA plant stop or reduce production, supply further slightly tightened, downstream inventory pressure in various links is not large, the demand side of the PTA support still exists. The epidemic situation is grim market sentiment slightly cooled, but the macro peripheral market favorable release, PTA maintain a strong trend. 14 East China main port spot offer execution 2105 contract minus 180 yuan / ton, delivery minus 185 yuan / ton, negotiation around 3840-3860 yuan / ton. In the second half of the year, the international crude oil market shock run, the cost side of the PTA market support in general. Fujian Baihong new device put into production out of material, part of the maintenance device warming restart, supply pressure further increased, the market significantly tired warehouse. Downstream part of the polyester plant maintenance, near the Spring Festival terminal demand gradually weakened, PTA market supply and demand contradiction is prominent. 28 East China main port spot offer execution 2105 contract minus 170 yuan / ton, delivery minus 180 yuan / ton, negotiation around 3710-3730 yuan / ton. January East China PTA market average price at 3769 yuan / ton, up 7.07%, down 22.26% year-on-year The highest price appeared at RMB 3880/mt on the 7th and the lowest price appeared at RMB 3670/mt on the 4th.
The ethylene glycol market was strong and oscillating in January. In the first half of the month, crude oil plus coal continued to rise, commodities were collectively stronger, and the terminal operation was restricted, ethylene glycol market spot circulation was tightened and basis difference was strengthened significantly, downstream polyester side overhaul to reduce negative strength was not as expected by the market, ethylene glycol market center of gravity was strong and oscillating, in the second half of the month, although the delivery ended at the end of the month, spot tightness was eased, but overseas devices were overhauled in advance, domestic production remained low, port inventory dropped significantly, downstream The tightness of spot became the main driving force for the rise of glycol market, as the spot basis differential strengthened to stimulate the increase of spot positive set buying. By the close of 28th, it was negotiated around 4615-4625 yuan/ton.
Polyester Bottle Flakes
In January, the domestic bottle grade PET market was on a rising trend and then declining. In the first half of the month, the bottle PET market continued its strong trend. On the 5th, OPEC+ reached an agreement to cut production, international crude oil started to go up, polyester raw material PTA market continued to rise, driven by the cost side, the bottle flake manufacturers offer positive upward push, bottle flake big factory daily transactions in more than 10,000 tons, mostly for dealers replenishment, market transactions, boosting the market price gradually rose to 5600- 5800 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the bottle grade PET market started to weaken slightly. In the second half of the month, the bottle PET market began to weaken slightly. The polyester raw material PTA market turned down, although the bottle flake manufacturers continued to offer stable at 5800-5900 yuan/ton, but the concessions were relaxed, dealers shipped at a small price reduction, and the center of gravity of market negotiations gradually fell to 5550-5700 yuan/ton. 29, driven by the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market high, the center of gravity of market negotiations rose to 5650-5750 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the field turned light, and the overall market transactions were scarce. Downstream manufacturers have sufficient stocking in the early stage, and the buy orders are slowing down, and we have not heard of bidding from large downstream factories during the month. As of January 29, the average price of PET bottle grade market in East China in January was RMB 5644/ton, up 6.39% YoY and down 14.44% YoY. The highest price was RMB 5800/ton on January 14 and the lowest price was RMB 5350/ton on January 4.
In January, the polyester chip market was first up and then down. early January, the international crude oil prices shockingly high, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol high shock, polyester cost side support solid, polyester chip enterprise offer significantly increased by 150 yuan / ton, the price exceeded the 5000 mark, downstream factories guided by the mentality of buy up not buy down, the purchase sentiment is high, the market production and sales significantly increased. In the middle of the day, the international crude oil prices high oscillation, raw materials PTA oscillation operation, cost support is still available, the factory price attitude is strong, the offer more stable, but the downstream factories to digest the pre-material stock, replenishment will be insufficient, the market inquiry atmosphere is light, the overall production and sales in general. In the second half of the year, polyester raw materials PTA narrow operation, cost support role weakened, slicing enterprise quotes narrowly down, and near the end of the year, the downstream factories on the market confidence is not enough, more cautious procurement of raw materials, the field spot transaction is flat, the slicing market weak finishing operation. As of January 29, the average price of slices market at 5102 yuan / ton, up 8.62%, down 19.79%, the highest price appeared in January 14 of 5250 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in January 4 of 4800 yuan / ton.
Polyester staple fiber
January polyester staple fiber market shocks up. At the beginning of the month, driven by macro and raw material costs, polyester staple prices continue to rise, and downstream buy up not buy down and part of the demand to follow up, buying sentiment is better, production and sales for days, factory inventory continues to fall. Subsequently, the strong run of crude oil, promoting the polyester industry chain futures generally rose, PF05 main force hit a new high listed, but the downstream preparation is more adequate, so the spot market follow up is not timely. Manufacturers in the inventory of low levels under the firm offer, traders between the low price transaction is still available. Near the end of the month, with the downstream yarn factory holiday, demand gradually shrink, coupled with the international crude oil market shock run, the cost side of the PTA market support in general. Cotton-type specifications appeared a small reduction in price promotions, but the buying power is still insufficient. Among them, the spunlace type staple fiber is because of the recurrence of the epidemic, which makes the purchase volume increase, and the price also appears upward adjustment. As of the 28th, the average price of East China polyester staple fiber market in January at 6198 yuan / ton, up 9.18%, down 10.82% year-on-year, the highest price appeared on January 18 of 6350 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in the 12th of 6050 yuan / ton. Sinopec 1.4D * 38mm direct spun polyester staple fiber settlement price in January at 6510 yuan / ton, up 530 yuan / ton compared with last month. Jiangsu Sanfangxiang 1.4D semi-gloss polyester staple settlement price for January was quoted at RMB 6210/mt.
January polyester filament market first up and then down. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil rose sharply, driving polyester raw materials PTA and glycol prices, cost support, polyester filament factory strong willingness to support prices, the offer continued to rise, coupled with the downstream inventory of pre-materials have been digested, chasing high sentiment, production and sales many times, the factory inventory level reduced. In the middle of the month, the raw material PTA shocks strong, cost support is still available, but downstream resistance to high-priced sources of goods, procurement enthusiasm is not enough, production and sales overall weak, but due to the low level of factory inventory and plant overhaul, supply-side support is good, so the polyester filament market is running firm. In the second half of the year, the downstream factories on holiday, demand weakened, polyester filament factory began to discount shipments, but downstream sentiment to kill, production and sales did not pick up significantly, and then, polyester filament factory to increase concessions, 28 factory loss sales a day, the downstream before the holiday to low amount of stockpiling, production and sales have been released. As of January 29, East China polyester filament POY market average price at 6090 yuan / ton, up 9.41%, down 14.96%, the highest price appeared in January 14 of 6300 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in January 28 of 5750 yuan / ton.
Part IV Forecast and Outlook
Forecast February polyester industry chain market or will be a high vibration pattern. February international oil prices will fluctuate at a high level, the cost of market support to enhance, while the polyester raw material market supply and demand side of more than short, the market or will remain high, the raw material side of the polyester market to form a certain support. Next month, polyester plant overhaul increase, while the terminal textile into the end of the year market, weaving enterprises in the first half of the year will fall to a low start, and polyester enterprises with low inventory support, the next month the polyester industry chain market to maintain the oscillating trend. The following is the market outlook for each product.
PX: PX market in February is expected to range oscillation, digesting the increase is the main, the previous PX overhaul units all back to normal, the domestic PX start will remain high, the supply of significantly higher, the industry is cautious, but PX demand is good, the market stalemate, a comprehensive view, the PX market in February is expected to shake the finishing, difficult to direction.
PTA: Goldlink expects the PTA market in February or strong operation. With the new Fujian Baihong device put into operation, the supply pressure continues to increase; however, the future downstream demand before the Spring Festival will continue the downward trend, is also expected to change. Supported by the cost, the market price resistance is strong. Crude oil trend must boost the PTA market, while the global epidemic has eased, the market is still relatively optimistic about textile demand after the Spring Festival, so the PTA market in February or maintain a strong pattern.
MEG: The ethylene glycol market is expected to be high and oscillating in February. From the macro level, the number of confirmed global epidemic broke 100 million, countries strengthen control measures, the market is still worried about the prospect of demand recovery. From the fundamental point of view, overseas devices are overhauled in advance, import increment is expected to be postponed, some new investment devices are delayed in production, glycol supply is not obvious, spot circulation is still tight, downstream and terminal weaving demand before the Spring Festival is still expected to continue to turn weak, but after the Spring Festival, terminal demand turns good, which is still supportable to the market. It is expected that the subsequent market will continue to adjust in the short term, and in the medium and long term, it may be dominated by high level oscillation.
Polyester PET: It is expected that the polyester PET market in February or oscillating operation. Next month, raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol or strong operation, polyester cost side to promote the role of enhanced. Supply side, the first half of February, a number of factories polyester plant parking maintenance, the start rate was significantly reduced, the total market supply further reduced, although the second half of the restart, but the market supply recovery still needs time; demand side, coinciding with the Spring Festival holiday, polyester PET field overall demand performance in general, downstream factories are cautiously wait and see, cautious buying mood, polyester PET market supply and demand side overall weak. Overall, it is expected that the polyester PET market in February or oscillating operation, the follow-up should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and upstream raw material market trends.
Polyester fiber: polyester fiber market in February is expected to be a wide range of oscillation. Although the raw material PTA supply pressure continues to increase, but the easing of the epidemic will benefit the polyester market, boosting the overall market atmosphere. As this year's polyester fiber factory inventory pressure are within control, coupled with local initiatives non-essential not to return home policy, so the overhaul efforts than last year has shrunk. At present, the inventory is mostly present in traders and downstream factories, and downstream weaving and yarn factory workers, considering the impact of the epidemic, some have gone home early, weaving start rate has dropped to near thirty percent, is expected in early February, the start will drop to a minimum, so the downstream demand will continue to reduce. Then the future, polyester fiber market, although demand is gradually weakening, but manufacturers low inventory, the market resistance is strong.
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